People spend hundreds of pounds/dollars on FIFA packs every year in the hope that they will land one of the game’s best players. But have you ever stopped to think about the chances of landing one of the rare superstar players in a pack? We have. We teamed up with the best FIFA database website UltimateDB in order to find the answer. There are thousands of players, club items and consumables available in FIFA 15 packs and as EA are unlikely to answer our question directly (as it would scare people off buying packs for life) we started with some calculations.
Our good friends at UltimateDB have devised a great metric by which you can judge how often a player is traded in the game. It calls this CardWeight and it shows a ratio which gives a good impression of how many of a particular card have been traded compared to all the other cards. Each card type os then given a score based on the amount of times it has made it onto the transfer list. Obviously some cards will be kept by the people that find them, so it isn’t 100% accurate, but it is the best metric we have to work with.
UltimateDB state that by dividing 300,000 by the card weight number, you can get a rough idea of the odds of finding a particular card in a pack. As there is nothing stopping EA from giving you the same players each time, the odds do not decrease every time you buy a pack. Each pack of the same type has the same chance of including Ronaldo, no matter how many you buy.
Let’s do some examples – we’ll save the best until last…
Mario Gomez has a card weight of 46 os you have a 1 in 6500 chance of getting this playmaker who only sells for a few thousand coins.
Gareth Bale’s card weight is 23 so you have a 1 in 13,000 chance – not great odds considering the most rank outsider in a horse race is only placed at 100/1
and Ronaldo is 1… which means that you have a very slim 1:300,000 chance of bagging him in the next pack you open.
As you can see, the chances of getting any good rare players in a pack is very low. That is why we recommend buying coins rather than wasting money on packs. With coins bought from a reputable seller such as FIFA Coins Online you can buy the amount of coins you actually need to go and buy the player(s) you want. There is no luck involved. Imagine you wanted to buy Courtois as your goalkeeper. He sells for roughly 60,000 coins and has a player weight of 30. That means that you could buy up to 10,000 packs and still not get him, or you could spend a few pounds and have him in your squad within a few minutes.